Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Conundrum!

(Above) Meall Coire Choille-rais
 

(Above) Back wall Lochain Coire Choille-rais
 

(Above ) Coire a Chriochairein
 
 
 (Above ) Cornices - Coire a Chriochairein
 
(Above ) Cornice  - Coire Ardair Inner Coire 
(Above ) Cornice  - Coire Ardair Main Coire 
(Above) Meall Coire Choille-rais - coire floor
(Above) Cornices - Coire Dubh
 
Fantastic conditions on the tops these past couple of days, which has helped us to get out and have a good look around East to West on the Meagaidh  'Massif'  - as above cornices (some of which are very large) overhang just about every coire headwall above steep NE through East to South East facing aspects (ie just about anywhere you would want to go to find steep and deep to play!)
 
So what's the conundrum?
 
Well basically our remit on the forecasting side is to provide 'snowpack' stability information (which at the moment is pretty stable!)
The actual stability of any cornices and the timings of any collapsing is a whole different ball park and in many respects something of a lottery  (indeed many of the features we are seeing this winter have similarities more akin to seracs in the Alps than cornices) 
 
What we can say however in the world of  cornices (or seracs)   - warm temperatures don't help, nor does rain,  both of which are appearing on the hozizon!
 
So whilst it may be outwit our remit to forecast cornice collapsing events  I'd be pretty wary of playing underneath any of the above in a downpour!

Think Meggie may not be unique at the moment!